Further Resources provided by Speakers
This page brings together selected articles, essays, and written contributions inspired by The Price of War symposium series. These materials reflect the views and expertise of speakers, contributors, and invited authors, expanding on themes explored during the events — including conflict economics, economic security, reconstruction, and the global consequences of war. New resources will be added over time as the symposium continues to evolve.
Tim Mak, The Counteroffensive / The Arsenal
This article examines how Ukraine's fast-growing defense technology sector could support post-war reconstruction and long-term economic growth. Wartime innovation has driven rapid expansion in defense firms, boosted GDP, and created export potential. The author argues that technologies developed for military use—such as drones and advanced manufacturing—could be adapted for civilian industries. The sector's future impact, however, will depend on the war's outcome, economic conditions, and security risks.
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DekaBank and EY-Parthenon
This joint study by DekaBank and EY-Parthenon examines Europe's evolving defence posture in response to Russia's war against Ukraine and NATO's designation of Russia as a long-term security threat. It argues that Europe has entered a new phase of defence policy, characterised by sustained increases in military spending and a growing emphasis on strategic autonomy. The report estimates that meeting NATO's revised targets could require annual investments of around €220 billion in equipment and ammunition, with significant economic spillovers. At the same time, it highlights persistent structural constraints, including fragmented procurement systems, limited industrial scalability, and continued dependence on U.S. capabilities for key platforms. The study concludes that deeper coordination, joint procurement, targeted mergers and acquisitions, and investment in advanced technologies are essential if higher defence spending is to translate into genuine military capability and long-term industrial resilience.
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Kacper Rękawek, Julian Lanchès and Maria Zotova (ICCT); Donald Bowser; edited by Dominika Hajdu (GLOBSEC)
Researchers at GLOBSEC and the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT)
The report examines Russia's use of hybrid warfare in Europe following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, focusing on the actors behind recent kinetic incidents rather than simply cataloguing attacks. It argues that criminal networks play a central role in Russia's hybrid strategy, showing how Moscow has developed a state-driven "crime–terror nexus" by recruiting and exploiting socially marginalised individuals, often with criminal backgrounds. Drawing historical parallels to earlier uses of hybrid tactics and to terrorist organisations that have mobilised criminal actors, the report situates these practices within Russia's long-standing governance model and post-2022 foreign policy. It concludes with an assessment of how criminality underpins Russia's hybrid operations and offers policy recommendations for European and EU-level responses.
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Michal Franta and Marek Kapička, Institute for Democracy and Economic Analysis (IDEA) and CERGE-EI
This policy brief examines how the Czech Republic should finance a sustained increase in defense spending from an economic perspective. Drawing on principles of optimal taxation, the authors argue that if higher defense spending is expected to persist, it should be financed primarily through timely tax increases rather than prolonged reliance on public debt. Using model-based simulations for the Czech economy, they show that delaying tax adjustments leads to higher long-term costs due to accumulated deficits and interest payments. The analysis highlights tax smoothing as a key principle and concludes that early, predictable financing choices are essential to minimizing economic distortions and ensuring fiscal sustainability in an environment of heightened security risks.
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Martin Wolf, Financial Times
Martin Wolf’s keynote presentation outlines the key factors shaping the global economy, emphasizing the unpredictability of economic forecasting in light of past surprises including the rise of China, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Mr Wolf highlights key long-term drivers, such as demographic shifts, technological advancements, and the rise of emerging economies, particularly in Asia, alongside fragilities like climate change, high debt levels, and political instability. The presentation also addresses potential future economic scenarios, ranging from a return to stability to increasing fragmentation and geopolitical tensions, with "known unknowns" like pandemics and wars posing ongoing risks to the global economy.
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General David Petraeus, KKR, and Clara Kaluderovic, Mental Help Global
General David Petraeus and Clara Kaluderovic have co-authored this important piece on Mental Help Global (MHG), a nonprofit organization leveraging AI to address the mental health crisis in war zones, particularly in Ukraine. The mental health situation in Ukraine, exacerbated by Russia's invasion, is dire, with over half the population in need of psychological support, but limited access to qualified professionals. MHG's AI-powered platform, developed with Ukrainian and U.S. experts, aims to provide scalable, culturally sensitive mental health support in multiple languages. General Petraeus and Ms Kaluderovic explain how the platform uses AI and big data to offer personalized, adaptive assistance, identify emerging psychological trends, and reach remote or conflict-affected areas where traditional care is unavailable.
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Clara Kaluderovic, Mental Help Global
Clara Kaluderovic discusses the enduring mental health toll of war, particularly on Ukraine's veterans, armed forces, and civilians. She explains that beyond physical destruction, war leaves invisible scars such as PTSD, anxiety, and depression, which often go unaddressed due to stigma and lack of resources, and how Mental Help Global (MHG) responds to this crisis by offering AI-driven mental health support, providing 24/7 confidential assistance in Ukrainian, Russian, and English.
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Ali Serim, Author
The article examines the Gulf states' ambitious climate commitments, including significant investments in renewable energy, while raising concerns about the gap between these pledges and actual implementation. Mr Serim suggests that for Gulf nations to lead in global climate action, they must prioritize transparency, inclusivity, and consistency, leveraging their financial resources to support vulnerable regions and ensure alignment between policy and practice.
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Ole Jann, CERGE-EI
Ole Jann explores nuanced views on echo chambers, censorship, and political debate in the information age. His article proposes that while echo chambers can foster honest communication within like-minded groups, they can also deepen societal divides, requiring careful balancing; censorship, when contextually appropriate, may improve information flow, especially in cases of inconclusive news; and online political debates often fail due to participants' motivations to assert partisan views and emotions, complicating efforts to improve discourse quality.
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